August Capital Good Shipments

September 27, 2007 – Real U.S. shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 0.7% in August after edging down by a revised 0.1% in July (Chart 1). (Before revision, the July data showed a 0.5% increase.)

Chart 1. Real shipments of non-defense capital goods ex aircraft. Percent change. January 2004 through August 2007.

These shipments were little changed for the three months through August, edging down by an average of 0.1% per month.

Compared to the same month last year, real non-defense capital good shipments excluding aircraft fell by 3.4% in August (Chart 2). These shipments have been running below their year-ago levels since January.

Chart 2. Real shipments of non-defense capital goods ex aircraft. Year-ago percent change. January 1969 through August 2007.

Real non-defense capital good shipments excluding aircraft edged up at a mere 0.1% annual rate for the first two months of Q3, compared to their Q2 average (Chart 3). For all of Q2, these shipments rose by 7.9%.

Chart 3. Real shipments of non-defense capital goods ex aircraft. Annualized percent change. Q1 2000 through Q2 2007 and Q3 2007 to date.

In the GDP accounts, real business fixed investment in equipment & software rose at a 4.7% annual rate in Q2, according to the BEA’s third (“final”) set of quarterly estimates. These data continue to suggest near-zero growth in Q3.

Suzanne Rizzo

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